Antonio C. Abaya - Festung Gloria

There is no truth to the rumor that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo tells me in advance what she is going to do.

But I have a pretty good batting average when it comes to predicting what she will do.
After she promised on December 30, 2002, practically on the grave of Jose Rizal, that she would not run in the 2004 presidential elections, I wrote in my column of May 22, 2003 titled She Will Run, that she would. And she did.

Long before anyone thought of the possibility that President Gloria would use Charter Change to remain in power through a shift to the parliamentary system, I wrote in my column of May 17, 2005 titled Prime Minister Gloria? that she would. And she did.

In mid 2006, her then loyal ally, House Speaker Jose de Venecia launched two simultaneous operations to shift to parliamentary. One was a People's Initiative, led by De Venecia factotum Raul Lambino and his Sigaw ng Bangaw to gather six million signatures endorsing a shift to parliamentary.

The other was a shameless attempt, led by JdV himself, to convene the Lower House into a constituent assembly, without the participation of the oppositionist Senate, to railroad a shift to parliamentary. Both attempts were shot down by the Supreme Court.

But how does President Gloria segue from president to prime minister? In my column of October 03, 2007, titled Dominatrix (referring to Gloria's hold on the timid and mousy Romulo Neri), I wrote:

"A model (for GMA) may soon emerge in, of all places, Russia.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin was first elected in May 2000 from a field of ten candidates, with the support of the outgoing president, the late Boris Yeltsin. In March 2004, Putin was re-elected president with an astounding 71% of the votes. His presidential term ends in March 2008 and he is barred by the Russian Constitution from running for a third term.

"But â€“ surprise! surprise! â€“ he announced last Monday, Oct. 01, that he will run for a seat in the Russian parliament in the coming parliamentary elections on December 2, and that, as head of the ruling United Russia party, he had a `realistic' chance of becoming prime minister.

"This announcement, made during a pre-election party congress in Moscow, brought `hundreds of delegates to their feet with a roar of applause,' according to the French news agency, AFP. This is not political hyperbole. Putin is genuinely popular for having brought prosperity (through the high price of oil and gas) and law and order to a formerly impoverished and chaotic Russia. The latest public opinion surveys give Putin an approval rating of more than 70%.

"So, if he wins a seat in parliament in December â€“ and no one doubts that he will - Putin will be both president and prime minister for several weeks or months, until he names a presidential successor to take over in March 2008. In those weeks or months, the Russian Constitution will no doubt be amended to shift from the presidential to the parliamentary system of government, to allow the popular Putin, who is only 55 years old, to remain in power almost indefinitely, as long as his party retains majority in parliamentâ€¦."

So as early as October 2007, I predicted that President Arroyo will follow the Putin Formula and run for a seat in Congress in May 2010 while she is still the sitting President.

Then when the new Congress convenes in July 2010, Congresswoman Arroyo, no longer President, will lead the campaign to shift to parliamentary which will install her as Prime Ministerâ€¦.for Life as long as the Lakas-Kampi-CMD alliance â€“ the PaLaKa coalition â€“ retains majority control of parliament, as it no doubt will, given the mercenary character of most of the congressmen and the innate corruptibility of our electoral process.

A few months ago, Malacanang unwittingly confirmed my Putin Formula for GMA by citing two cases in US history in which two former presidents â€“ John Quincy Adams and Andrew Johnson - served in the US House of Representatives and Senate, respectively, after their presidential terms. Ergo, what's wrong if GMA does the same? Malacanang did not mention that neither Adams nor Johnson tried to change the US Constitution to shift to parliamentary so that they could serve as prime minister.

So, I assured a gathering of executives of the Lopez Group of Companies at the Meralco Little Theater the other day, presidential elections will be held as scheduled on May 10, 2010. There will be no attempt to extend GMA's presidential term. And there will be no constituent assembly to switch to parliamentary before May 10, 2010.

But GMA will run for and win a seat in the Lower House, to represent the second district of Pampanga. And she will maneuver a shift to parliamentary and become Prime Minister after the 2010 elections.

If there should be failure of elections - either unplanned and/or deliberate â€“ Norberto Gonzales' revolutionary transition government would likely kick in, with Gloria Arroyo as revolutionary head of state, which will rewrite the Constitution to suit her game plan, backed by the well-placed alumni of PMA Class of 1978, of whom GMA is an honorary member.

Former President Fidel Ramos recently warned PMA Class of 1978 that they do not command the loyalty of most of the rest of the Armed Forces. Four months ago, a general in active service told me that if Gen. Delfin Bangit (highest ranking Class of 1978 alumnus and supposed favorite general of GMA) were to be named AFP chief-of-staff, mid-level officers would stage a counter-coup against him.

A divided AFP-PNP would be the last thing that this unfortunate country needs, but it is a real possibility if Gloria Arroyo persists in her efforts to remain in power beyond June 30, 2010. She seems ready to risk even civil war, or at least war between two factions in the military..

Her visits to her district in Pampanga â€“ now numbering 30 since February, according to the Inquirer â€“ may be a clue as to what she intends to do.

Visiting a small electoral district 30 times â€“ and no doubt many more times in the coming eight months â€“ goes way beyond the demands of premature electoral campaigning. There must be another, more weighty reason behind it.

I sense that she is actually preparing for war. She is building a Festung Gloria, a Fortress Gloria, in her home district, just in case Bert Gonzales' revolutionary transition government does not pan out and she is forced out of Malacanang by angry mobs, as Ferdinand Marcos was in 1986, and Joseph Estrada was in 2001.

But unlike Marcos and Estrada, Gloria Arroyo may not tearfully admit defeat. She has more balls than Marcos and Estrada put together. She would likely withdraw to her Festung Gloria from where she could lead a counter-attack with the help of PMA Class of 1978.

With their enormous wealth stashed abroad, she can order unlimited amounts of war materiel from arms dealers abroad â€“ like the Moldovan Viktor Bout, currently in jail in Bangkok - to be airlifted to the nearby Diosdado Macapagal International Airport (the former Clark Air Base) or the nearby Subic International Airport.

In fact I would say that her frequent trips abroad (52 at last count, much more than the second-placer Fidel Ramos'33) have been made not just to reconfigure the Arroyos' financial investments abroad, after the global financial meltdown, but also to ensure a supply line to Festung Gloria if and when push comes to shove.

The loyalist AFP under President Noynoy or whoever would be outgunned and out-maneuvered in a face-off with a vastly better armed and better equipped PMA Class of 1978, especially if the Bangsamoro were to declare an independent state and the NPA were to resume their offensives, while the AFP is breaking apart. A Perfect Storm which Festung Gloria would be capable of fomenting and exploiting.

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